Economic Development Strategy

 

The economic development strategy aims to accelerate economic growth to take the country rapidly towards upper middle income status by 2020 while promoting efficiency in the use of resources and promoting social equity. This strategy involes five main goals of development, namely,

 

1.     Generating one million employment opportunities

2.     Enhancing income levels

3.     Development of rural economies

4.     Ensuring land ownership to rural and estate sectors, the middle class and government employees

5.     Creating a wide and a strong middle class

 

Main Components of the Economic Strategy

 

 


 

Indicative Macroeconomic Targets 2020

 

The main planning indicators for the four year period are indicated in the Table 1. The GDP growth rate will be increased to 7 percent in 2020 from the existing rate of 4.8 percent. The GDP will be increased to US$ 125 billion and GDP per-capita will be increased to US$5,797 by 2020. This will earmark the achievement of Upper Middle Income economic status by Sri Lanka.

Table 1: Indicative Macroeconomic Targets 2020

(% of GDP)

Indicator

2015

Estimate

Projections

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GDP Growth Rate

4.8

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.0

Investment

30.1

30.1

30.3

31.0

31.5

31.5

Private Investment

24.7

26.0

25.1

25.6

25.8

25.8

Public Investment

5.4

4.1

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.7

Total Expenditure

21.0

18.9

20.2

20.3

20.4

20.4

Revenue and Grants

13.5

13.5

15.5

16.0

16.4

16.9

Current Account Balance

-2.2

-1.6

0.5

1.1

1.6

2.2

Budget Deficit

-7.5

-5.4

-4.6

-4.3

-4.0

-3.5

Domestic Savings

22.6

23.2

23.8

25.0

25.9

26.4

Source: Department of National Planning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sectoral Investment 2017-2020

 

The annual breakdown of the public investment during the 2017-2020 period is indicated under eight main sectors in the Table 2. Accordingly, the public investment is to be maintained at a level of 5.5 percent of the GDP during the reference period.

Table 2 : Sectoral Investment 2017-2020

(Rs. Billion)

Sector

2017

Budget

Projections

2017-2020 Cumulative

As a % of Total

2018

2019

2020

1. Human Resource Development

153.5

173.3

200.4

229.1

756.3

21.4

o/w Education

99.1

111.4

129.1

148.3

487.8

13.8

Health

43.6

50.3

58.9

67.6

220.5

6.2

2. Agriculture

35.6

45.7

46.1

53.2

180.6

5.1

o/w Livestock

6.2

12.7

6.3

7.6

32.8

0.9

Plantation

8.3

9.5

11.1

12.7

41.5

1.2

Fisheries

6.0

7.0

8.2

9.4

30.5

0.9

3. Industry, Trade, Investment and Tourism

87.4

89.7

94.0

98.6

369.7

10.5

4. Infrastructure

268.4

327.6

412.8

479.3

1,488.1

42.1

o/w Roads

116.1

144.0

201.0

247.0

708.1

20.1

Land Transport

35.0

40.4

47.3

54.3

176.9

5.0

Ports and Aviation

1.3

2.2

3.0

3.5

10.0

0.3

Water Supply and Sewarage

26.7

38.7

42.0

45.4

152.7

4.3

5. Good Governance

72.1

81.6

91.0

94.3

338.9

9.6

6. Environmental Management

9.2

10.6

12.3

14.2

46.3

1.3

7. Social Protection

13.9

11.7

8.3

7.5

41.5

1.2

8. Regional Development

68.8

73.8

79.0

88.1

309.7

8.8

Grand Total

708.8

814.0

943.9

1,064.2

3,530.9

100.0

Source: Department of National Planning

 

 

Sectoral Investment by Type of Project 2017-2020

 

The Table 3 shows the allocation of total investment according to the type of project i.e. public investment in terms of ongoing projects, annual programmes and new projects. Accordingly, the ongoing projects receive the highest investment allocation of 51 percent. The allocation for the annual programmes and new projects is 22 and 27 percent respectively.

 

Table 3 : Sectoral Investment by Type of Project 2017-2020

(Rs. Billion)

Sector

 Type

2017

Budget

Projections

2017 - 2020 Cumulative

2018

2019

2020

Human Resource Development

Ongoing

89.2

80.8

84.7

84.2

339.0

Annual

21.3

40.7

46.8

54.3

163.2

New

43.0

51.7

68.9

90.6

254.2

Agriculture

Ongoing

8.7

12.4

8.5

8.8

38.3

Annual

15.2

15.3

18.2

19.4

68.2

New

11.7

18.0

19.4

25.0

74.1

Industry, Trade, Investment & Tourism

Ongoing

39.3

39.2

42.0

44.1

164.6

Annual

14.5

16.8

17.3

17.8

66.4

New

33.6

33.8

34.7

36.7

138.8

Infrastructure 

Ongoing

196.8

192.0

247.2

268.8

904.8

Annual

55.2

79.7

74.8

77.4

287.1

New

16.4

55.8

90.8

133.1

296.2

Good Governance 

Ongoing

47.1

56.4

64.1

66.9

234.5

New

24.9

25.3

26.8

27.5

104.5

Environment

Ongoing

3.9

4.5

4.5

4.0

16.9

Annual

4.2

3.7

3.7

5.8

17.4

New

1.1

2.3

4.1

4.4

11.9

Social Protection

Ongoing

10.4

5.9

3.9

3.0

23.3

Annual

2.0

2.8

2.7

2.7

10.3

New

1.6

2.9

1.7

1.7

7.9

Regional Development

Ongoing

33.4

21.8

19.0

7.9

82.0

Annual

18.8

36.6

48.1

64.1

167.6

New

16.6

15.4

11.9

16.1

60.1

Allocation  by Type of Project

Ongoing

428.8

413.0

473.9

487.7

1,803.4

Annual

131.2

195.6

211.6

241.5

779.9

New

148.9

205.2

258.3

335.1

947.5

Grand Total

 

708.8

814.0

943.9

1,064.2

3,530.9

Source: Department of National Planning

 

 

Public Investment Programme - Targets 2020

The sectoral targets 2020 are indicated in the Table 4.

Table 4:  Public Investment Programme - Targets 2020

Indicator

2015

2020

Human Resource Development

Survival Rates (Grade 1-11) (%)

86

100

Qualified for G.C.E. (A/L) subject streams from G.C.E (O/L) (%)

69.33

80

Eligibility for University Entrance from G.C.E. (A/L) (%)

62.35

80

New admission to state universities

25,676

50,000

New admissions to Skills Education

182,829*

350,000

Youth unemployment rate (%)

20.7

14.1

Female labour force participation rate (%)

36

40

Digital Literacy (%)

25*

40

IT/BPO export revenue (USD Million)

910*

5,000

Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births)

34.2

25

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

8.0

6.0

Premature deaths due to NCDs (<65 years) (%)

18

9

Agriculture

Export revenue from selected agricultural exports such as fruits, vegetables, cut flower and foliage, spices and other export crops (USD Billion)

0.5

1

Export earnings of Tea, Rubber and Coconut (Rs. Billion)

295.3*

565.5

Total irrigable extent (Hectares)

744,983

850,000

Self-sufficiency in liquid milk (%)

44

100

Industry, Trade, Investment and Tourism

 

 

Employment in industry sector (Million)

2

3

Industry contribution to GDP

28.5

30

Export earnings (USD Billion)

11.1

20

High tech exports (%)

1

5

Tourist arrivals (No. million)

1.79

4.5

Tourism income (USD billion)

2.92

10

Infrastructure

 

 

Share of railway passenger transport (%)

5

10

Total container traffic (TEUs ‘000)

5.2

6.8

Share of electricity generation from non-conventional renewable

energy sources

11

20

Reduce volume of runoff water (MCM)

28,000

21,500

Safe drinking water coverage (%)

86

100

Sanitation coverage (%)

87

100

Environment

 

 

Forest cover (%)

29

32

*Data pertaining to 2014

Source: Department of National Planning